2024 Economy – Buy The Dip
Experts predict a recession.
U.S. Manufacturing says we’re already in one.
Opportunists say, “Buy the dip.”
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District manufacturing survey on January 23.
All the components are negative by double digits. Employment is down hard, dropping from -1 to -15.
The capacity utilization index sits at −27. A third of respondents said January was slower than December.
So, what do we do?
Take advantage of it!
Talent Opportunity
I started noticing a shift in employment attitudes last November.
Cost Cutting Creates Opportunity was my December 05 response.
I simply said that first payroll cuts take out the under-performers.
The next round deletes strong people who have nothing to do.
When those strong people hit the market, they are sometimes surprised.
They are frequently at the top of their game.
And they want to get back in the action with someone who knows what they’re doing.
These are people who ordinarily wouldn’t be available at all.
Growth Opportunity
PNC Financial Services Group held their Q4 2023 Earnings Call, recently.
I wrote about it in PNC Moving To Next Level.
Robert Reilly, Chief Financial Officer had this prediction…
“…we’re expecting a mild recession starting in mid-2024, with a contraction in real GDP of less than 1%.
We expect the federal funds rate to remain unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% through mid-2024, when we expect the Fed to begin to cut rates.”
You don’t have to be an economist to agree with that projection.
This is an election year.
Of course money is going to show up in the strangest places.
Of course the Fed will cut rates before the election.
Every possible precaution will be taken to avoid reality.
Meanwhile, the real headline-grabbing statements came from Bill Demchak, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer for PNC Bank.
He was very clear that all policies favor bank consolidation.
Big banks are protected.
The biggest banks win.
There’s no question Demchak is cranking up his Mergers and Acquisitions team.
He’s going to absorb every failing franchise he can get his hands on.
Tech Opportunity
There was a similar economic outlook presented at the A3 Business Forum in Orlando.
(A3 is North America’s largest trade association for all things automation.)
Alan Beaulieu, principal and president of ITR Economics, proposed that the gross domestic product (GDP) might be flat or slightly down in 2024.
Looking more specifically at Industrial Production, he agreed that manufacturing is in recession and will likely stay there all year.
His recommendation –if you can do it– is to retool now.
Invest in automation, particularly in robotics.
Advances in automation are accelerating.
If you wait for economic conditions to improve, you will be so far behind, it will take years to catch up.
Do it now.
Recruiter’s View
The economy and culture are a mess.
And full of opportunity…
- Talent
- Growth
- Tech
Tomorrow’s winners will dig in, right here.
-TD