Recruiter’s View

The Yield Spread promises a wicked recession.
It also hints at a fabulous recovery.

The Yield Spread is a reliable indicator of U. S. economic health.  For a good description of how it works, visit firsttuesday Journal. 

Basically, the spread compares the Fed’s short term monetary policy against long term investor sentiment.

The resulting number is like a weather prediction for the economy, a year out.

Low numbers are bad.  And negative numbers are really bad.  They suggest we’ll have a recession the following year.

Then we have the Biden numbers… the most negative since 1981.  By all rights, we’re screaming toward a crushing recession.

Real Estate agents already know that.  They’ve been in recession territory for some time, now.

Employers are hesitant to add staff.

For similar reasons.

On The Other Hand

Then we have the Trump phenomenon.  We’re only in the fourth month of his new term, and he’s already moved the Yield Spread back to zero.  Incredible.

Tariff battles are resolving favorably.

And corporations are making huge commitments to bring manufacturing back to the U. S.

Recruiter’s View

Prospects for a roaring economy are excellent.

Warnings of a nasty recession are in the books.

Things are going to be really good, really bad, or a little bit of both.