Employment Weather Report, Fall 2010
The seasons are changing again in the Jobs Markets. Employers and Candidates are re-evaluating.
Coming out of a rugged summer, many indexes are unimpressive. Negative news stories have become boringly repetitive. Gold continues to climb to new highs.
Political Silly Season is in full bloom. Politicians strive to make new and exciting promises to an electorate that is still waiting for free health care, no debts, jobs for everyone, cheap energy, easy mortgages, instant U.S. citizenship for the entire world, and not one cent of additional taxes.
Voters seem skeptical.
Stronger Balance Sheets
American businesses have found ways to survive two years of brutality. Many are now thriving as a result of savage cost cutting at home and blossoming sales growth overseas.
The forward looking stock markets are finding something positive. Forecasts suggest that politicians will get out of the way and stop threatening businesses. Businesses might come out of hiding and start hiring. Money will flow, purchases will be made, and God will be in His Heaven.
That vision is so persuasive that companies may not wait for November’s final vote count to be tallied before they begin hiring. We have suggested that hiring may kick in a month earlier, if poll numbers are strong enough.
In fact, we have seen distinct signs that early searches have already started.
Candidates will see more action in the coming weeks. Hiring Authorities may be slow to make firm offers, prior to election results. Low ball offers or short term contracting will be the theme for a while. Churning will be normal. Lots of job changes.
If businesses view election results as positive, the stock markets will close the year at their highs. Capital Goods orders will climb. Unemployment numbers will flatten or perhaps fall.
CEOs will think longer term as political gunslingers are retired. Only then will hiring resume for full time positions at more appropriate pay rates.
Candidates are almost required to balance current income requirements against future strengthening in the jobs markets.
CEOs must balance the benefits of today’s low pay plans against a looming labor shortage.