Employers’ Dilemma

By Ted Dieck | Employers Intelligence - Employee Relations | Mar 21, 2023

Cutting payroll, going into a recession?  Think carefully.
Demographics suggest rebuilding may be tough.

Going into a recession, companies will consider how to get small.
Inevitably, Employers will look to cut payroll.

It’s a time-tested strategy, but times have changed.
The demographics no longer favor that plan.
Re-building a team in the future is going to be harder.

Boomers Exiting

The Boomer generation is leaving the stage.

At the end of World War II, servicemen returning home set about getting back to their lives, and that included starting families.

The Baby Boom shaped everything in society, as this large population rolled through every stage of life.  Schools had to be expanded.  Then the workforce exploded.  We are now in a Seniors Boom.

This huge resource is leaving the workforce.

Fewer Replacements

So, what does the incoming population look like?  Well, there are some challenges.

Obviously, the group isn’t as large.
And, more troubling, birth rates are in decline.

Replacements Aren’t As Healthy

Then there’s the COVID-19 fiasco.  It’s the gift that keeps on giving…

Working age mortality is up 40%.  You can argue whether this is the direct result of a defective vaccine.  But there’s no question, the working age population is dying 40% faster than it was prior to 2020.  Just ask the insurance companies.

Employees Acting Like Contractors

Among the workforce outliers, the COVID-19 stay-at-home protocol destroyed the work ethic.  Some don’t work at all.  

The government has supported that decision.  First, we received COVID-19 checks.  After that, many discovered that their unemployment payments were generating a higher income than getting a job.

Others learned they could call in sick to a full time job and go make money somewhere else.


Are New Grads Educated?

Looking ahead, what does the incoming generation bring to the table?

I’m suspicious of college grads who were supposed to be getting an education in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Schools were closed or distracted.  Did they really produce qualified engineers?

I’d like to be convinced.

Also, there’s a very good chance that Woke schools lowered their standards.
They believe what you look like is more important than what you can do.

Net Deficit

Bottom line, future resources look thin.

We’re entering a creepy world, where computers and automation propose to do all thinking and all work.

Socialists push for universal income.
(Was COVID a dry run?)

This is not the inspirational environment that drives people to excel.

We can expect fewer good Candidates in the years ahead.
The majority may not be as strong.
Worse, they may not be as motivated.